Weekend Review Nov 7, 2015

This has been a great week for me since I was able to break my four trade losing streak and I was able to significantly decrease my overall losses from -150 pips to -50 pips with only one win trade! I was only able to trade on one currency pair for this week since almost all the major currency pairs are already being dragged by the dollar strength and this pair was the only one doing a significant retracement in the daily time frame before continuing it's trend.

We will first look at my first trade setup of AUDUSD here.

Looking at the daily chart of AUDUSD back in Nov 2, 2015 we can see that the price is retracing upward to the the bearish trend line. I know that there was still a possibility that the pair would still continue its retracement a little bit more and could possibly retest the trend line first before going down but when I checked at the lower time frame, there was already a bearish gartley pattern that completed. The completion of the pattern is also located at an area where there is a short term resistance. This gave an additional reason to enter the market as a trend continuation trade. But with every possible reason I made, the market was still able to break my analysis and hit my stop loss making this the fourth trade losing streak. I will choose to enter this trade setup anytime though. This time the market just won.

We will now check my second trade on AUDUSD on the next day here.

With the market continuing to retrace upward and retest the trend line, it was able to create a new top in the lower time frame very near the daily trend line. I now have three reasons where I think the best place to enter the trade. First reason was that the pair made a new top and that would mean creating a new resistance area in the lower time frame. Second, there was 0.72 major psychological number that could serve as another resistance. I admit that this reason does not give me a lot of confidence but based on many sources, psychological numbers are a valid support and resistance levels. Lastly, the daily bearish trend line was there to hold the price. And all these reasons can all be covered within a 40 pips stop loss placement and so I placed a pending order at 0.71950 to ensure a trade will be triggered even if I was not there. And as I already mentioned, this was the trade that broke my losing streak!

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

But this trade did not close immediately after it was triggered. It was even open during the release of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) Report. I was even able to change the limits of this trade to favor my situation. Just before the NFP report came out, I changed the stop loss level to 0.7180. This would ensure that I will have a profit even if the price would go up. I also increased my profit target to leverage on the news report if the price would go down.

I'm not sure what more things I could do to improve my trading with these two previous trades. I am willing to trade those two setup again if I can have the chance. My only regret on this week I think is the take profit level I chose before the NFP report was out. I think I could have had more profit to take but I am not sure on what price to target. I will be studying this kind of situation next time to ensure a better return.

With only two trades made this week, I think I need to adjust my trading entry strategy as well. I am always looking first at the long term time frame hoping to see any decent retracement so that I can enter on a big swing trade. Maybe next week I will also be looking a lot more in the lower time frame to have more chance in entering the market. But I will still need to take into consideration of my trading strategy especially my 1:2 risk to reward ratio. Anyway this has been a good week. Maybe if I will encounter another bad week then maybe I can see a lot of my flaws then I could be guided on what more I could improve.

I am now only down by 50 pips guys! With the losing streak over, I am hoping to have my winning streak soon!

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Update Nov 6, 2015

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

I think I need to post this update since this is actually my first win! My 4 trade losing streak has finally been broken! I wish that I will never experience that feeling again! And this happened because of a Non Farm Payroll news report! The thrill was very satisfying especially when waiting for the release of the report. The nervousness that the report might go against my trade was nerve wracking! I won 100 pips on this trade unfortunately I wasn't able to post my change in trade setup. What I was only able to say was that I was going to change my stop loss and take profit level yesterday here.

Yesterday I said that when this trade was still open when the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) comes out, I would change my stop loss and take profit target to secure my profit. As you can see in the chart above I labeled there my new stop and target. I ensured that this trade will have even just a little profit and break my losing streak! I lowered my stop loss just above the two tops created by the market when this trade was still active and also lowered the take profit level to have 100 pips from 80 pips in the original setup. I think I could still have lowered that take profit level. But I don't care! A win is a win!

I am now only down 50 pips. With my 100 pip win trade I was able to cut my 150 pip loss from my four trade losing streak! With this kind of win gives so much morale back to you as a trader. I just hope I can have a four trade winning streak to make a great come back!

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD Analysis Nov 5 2015

The GBPUSD pair has just been in a range motion recently. We previewed this pair earlier this week here. And if you were someone who shorted this pair on the resistance zone, congratulations!

GBPUSD Daily Time Frame

Based on our previous analysis, we were right that the market will be able to bounce back down when hit the resistance. Unfortunately it was a very brief moment in that resistance area. I was not able to see a good shorting opportunity in the lower time frame. But if you were the aggressive trader and entered this trade based on the long term analysis, your risk paid off. For now, the pair is near the support zone. I am now looking for this pair to go long. The only concern I have now is the NFP report tomorrow which could possibly destroy our analysis.

GBPUSD 1HR Time Frame

But if you look at our lower time frame, there is already a good reason for entry since a bat pattern has already been completed. If you are an aggressive trader, you can actually pounce on this trade setup and long the market. You can have a stop loss below the the support area highlighted in the daily time frame and set your take profit near the resistance area. For me, I will stay on the sidelines a little bit longer and wait for the market to calm down. It just made a landslide bearish candle on the downside and with that momentum, it can destroy the support area easily. I will wait for the market to calm down and hint a possible upward move then I can enter. Make sure to check your rules in entering this trade guys!

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

Quick update on my active trade in AUDUSD trade setup done here. The pair is currently in consolidation and can possible retrace a little bit more to the upside before going down to my take profit. I'm afraid that this trade might still be open until tomorrow when the NFP report comes out. That will be a big problem if the dollar report will be bearish. There will be a lot of support and resistances broken for sure. If the dollar will be bullish, we can see a huge move on our side. If this trade is still active near the release of the report, I will adjust my SL and TP prices. I will decide the setup tomorrow.

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPJPY Analysis Nov 4,2015

It very hard to find some major currency pair that has a good trading opportunity since most USD pairs are being bullied by the dollar. They are mostly on the move already due to the dollar strength. If we want to enter the market in a good position, the currency needs to retrace a little bit first. So I was checking out GBPJPY this time.

GBPJPY Daily Time Frame

Looking at the daily time frame, we can see that the pair is going up recently and is approaching a resistance zone. Looking also at the size of the daily bullish candle sticks, they are really not that powerful of an upward move. It is just moving upward tiny steps at a time. But if you check the bearish Oct 27, 2015 candle, the currency can drop significantly anytime. I believe that the pair is going to retrace back to the bullish trend line first and then bounce up to continue its upward move some time soon.

GBPJPY 4HR Time Frame

If you look at the 4hr time frame, we can see that there is a bearish bat pattern forming and could possibly back up my analysis in the daily time frame. Unfortunately GBP currency pairs tend to have a huge pip movement and that X leg of the bat pattern is still around 800 pips away. That is more than my risk capabilities. I will be checking the lower time frame on this pair to see if I can find a bearish entry and have lower risk than this setup.

 

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

Just a quick update on my AUDUSD pending order done here. The order was triggered and with the three possible resistances I mentioned when pending on this trade, the daily bearish trend line was the one who was able to stop the price from going up! I just hope this trade will break my four trade losing streak! Currently I am up around 40 pips on this trade. I am half way there on my take profit! Hopefully soon, this trade will close on a profit!

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Pending Short Nov 3, 2015

Have you ever felt you wanna cry in trading cause you always lose your trades and never know what else to do to improve it? I have felt that many times and again now with my fourth consecutive trade on the losing side! How do you even try to move on while you always encounter failure on every move you take? Do you wanna quit on trading? Do you want to find another thing more productive to do? I have thought about it so many times now. Just to let you guys know, I am entering the market with my actual account in every trade I post here so that all the feelings I may express is legit. If you are still struggling or if you are actually trying to start trading, you might reach a time where you are so lost, you are so sad or maybe so depressed and angry. Don't worry guys. You are not alone. If you are one of those lucky few that escaped this level of failure in trading, can you give an advice?

AUDUSD Daily Time Frame

Anyway, even though our advanced pattern short entry failed here, the market is still respecting the downward trend line in the longer time frame. I am still looking for another shorting opportunity here but as I explained earlier, I really don't know what else to do to make things right. I may have some decent reason behind my trade but the outcome are no good at all.

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

Looking at the lower time frame, I set a pending sell order at 0.71950 hoping the market will try to make a double top or retrace a little before continuing going south based on the higher time frame. You can see the bearish trend line drawn from the daily time frame above. I chose 0.7195 as the entry price because just above it will be a psychological resistance number 0.7200. Also with the new top created by the market, I hope that it will serve as another resistance as well. Lastly the falling trend line would hopefully hold the price below it. This is also good in my stop placement since I will be risking 40 pips on this trade, the stop loss will be located at 0.7235 decently above all resistance mentioned as you can see in the chart. And I will set my take profit level at 0.7115 with 80 pips away to have a minimum 1:2 risk to reward ratio.

For the record, I am now down 150 pips and in my fourth losing streak. I hope this trade will be triggered and will break my bad luck. I hope you guys are having a lot more better performance than I do.

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Pending Short
Entry: 0.71950
SL: 0.7235
TP: 0.7115

AUDUSD Short Nov 2, 2015

AUDUSD Daily Time Frame

Looking at the Daily Time Frame and even the weekly time frame, you can see that the pair has been in a very huge down trend. With that bias I am only looking for a possible short entry with the major trend. Last Friday, the pair was able to rally significantly and engulf the bearish candle from Oct 29, 2015. Today there was still a continuation of the up move but looking at the lower time frame...

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

I was able to find a bearish gartley patter in the 1hr time frame. I was a little bit hesitant about this trade as the market is a little bit retracing and is currently going back close to the trend line. But this is an opportunity to short the market with minimal risk than usual.

I entered the trade at 0.71409 looking only to gain at least 60 pips at 0.70809. I will be only risking 30 pips on this trade at 0.71709. I know that I am not following the advanced pattern take profit but I am trading this for the bearish major trend. Also, I don't want to break my rule on at least having 1:2 risk to reward ratio. I only chose to enter this way to have a better position backed with a good entry.

I hope that this trade will be my first win so that I wont have 4 consecutive losing trades from the start. If you think you can improve my setup or if you can suggest a better trading rule, write at the comments below!

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Short
Entry: 0.71409
TP: 0.70809
SL: 0.71709

Market Preview Nov 1, 2015

GBPUSD Daily Time Frame

We will first discuss the GBPUSD break of trend line in the daily time frame. Initially I took two short trades last week here and here hoping for the pair to go lower before the close of the daily candle. Unfortunately, the market would later on continue higher and hit both stop loss. 

With the break of the trend line, we can now wait for the market to reach the resistance level and look for a possible sell entry on the lower time frame. On the other side, we might see the market retrace back a little bit lower and make the broken trend line its support and then go higher. In case the market will reach the support area, I will be looking for a buy entry in the lower time frame. 

With the trend line no longer valid, I will now treat this pair as in consolidation between the highlighted support and resistance areas.

USDCHF Daily Time Frame

For the USDCHF pair, it has already broken the bearish trend line and also closed above the August 11 highs. It is currently retracing from 6 days of straight bullish candles. I am looking at this pair to go higher but will be continuously waiting until the retracement stops. I will be checking for the lower time frame for best possible entry when the upswing starts.

There are many possible places were it may start its upward move but there are only two places where I will want to enter the market. The first area where I will look to enter the market will be the previously broken trend line. There are multiple times when the market makes these broken trend lines as support. The second place place where I would want to enter the market is the bullish trend line. I know that it is still so far away but that is the safest place to buy the market. Hopefully I can find myself a good entry in these areas but we can never know what the market will do. It can even continue its upward move tomorrow for all we know.

USDCAD Daily Time Frame

In USDCAD, the pair is currently heading back to the support area. But before hitting that area, it will first reach the bullish trend line. I believe that this trend line will hold and I will be looking for a buying opportunity in the lower time frame when the price will be close enough to trend line. This is by far the most clean setup I have. Hopefully I can find a decent entry so that I won't waste this opportunity.

I will still be analyzing more currency pairs later on this week. Do you have any pair that you want me to analyze so that we can compare our analysis? Just ask in the comments!

Good luck in trading guys!

Trading Stats Nov 1, 2015

With my very first week of trading over, I will now post my statistics so that you guys may see the struggles I encounter each week in trading the currency markets. For this week, I have made a total of three trades NZDUSD Long here, and two GBPUSD Short made here and here.

All three trades lost with no luck at all. It is kinda embarrassing to post failing statistics but I believe no trader became successful without failing in the early stages. I just hope I can give you better results in the near future. This is my first time to give a statistic so it might not be as comprehensive as you might expect but I will add more stats along the way.

Trading Guidelines:

1. Have at least 1:2 risk to reward ratio

2. Have a risk of up to 30-40 pips only

3. Look for support/resistance and trend line in the Higher Time frame

4. Look for reasons for entering in the lower time frame

5. Look for possible advanced patterns in the lower time frame. (Review Experience)

Statistics:

• Pip Profit: -120 pips
• Successful trades: 0/3
• Chance of winning trade: 0%
• Ave gain in win: N/A
• Ave loss in fail: 40 pips

Weekend Review Oct 31, 2015

This is my first weekend review and I already have a very ugly start. I believe that I have done a decent analysis from the three trades made this week but all of them hit their stop loss. I am down 120 pips so far. We will see every trade I made the past week and look at how we can improve for future trading decisions later on.

We will look at my very first trade NZDUSD analyzed here.

I decided on my daily time frame analysis that there is still a possibility that the pair can still continue to go higher and reach the 50% retracement and retest the long term trend line. I am still looking at this pair on where it is heading. With the current price action of the pair, my analysis is still a valid possibility.

NZDUSD 4HR Time Frame

My regret was that I didn't see earlier that there was a valid gartley pattern completing a little bit lower where my stop loss was located. Adding more insult to injury, I saw the pattern and I could have still hopped in to the gartley pattern but I decided not to enter the market because the bearish trend might continue.

I was still even able to recommend the gartley pattern on my analysis after the first trade here. Congratulations on those who took the advanced pattern trade!

We will now look at my second trade analyzed here.

Again from my top down analysis, I believe that my trade analysis was still good enough to have confidence in entering the trade. But as you know, the trade hit it's stop loss as well. Similar to the NZDUSD trade, I failed to see in advance a possible completion of a bearish cypher pattern on where my stop loss was placed in which I could have had a better entry than this one.

But unlike the NZDUSD trade where I did not took the advanced cypher pattern because I thought that the long term trade was continuing, I took the cypher pattern in this situation here.

GBPUSD 1HR Time Frame

I took the cypher pattern believing that with my daily time frame analysis, I am still in a valid position to short the market. But if you have been in the market for quite some time, you know that your analysis is never perfect because you can never predict what the market will actually do.

GBPUSD Daily Time Frame

With the Daily candle close yesterday, my original daily time frame analysis for this currency pair is now invalidated in which I took two trades. Trend lines will be broken eventually and in this situation, it took two losses with me.

With the trading week over, I hope you guys were a lot more fortunate than me. The market is never forgiving so make sure your trades is safe with a stop loss all the time. I will be making a separate post where I will update my stats as a trader and list my learning experiences to remind myself all the time and hopefully I will become much better along the way.

Experienced gained this week:
Look for an advanced pattern in the lower time frame before entering a trade. It can give you a lot better entry than support and resistance trade setup in the lower time frame. It will also remove the possibility of doing two trades in the same area so that you will not lose twice if your analysis is wrong.

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD(2) Short Oct 30, 2015

Oh my God! Second straight trade failed! I am now down to -80 pips! My short term trades are really no good at all! But I still believe that my GBPUSD top down analysis is correct. For now, I still have a very good entry in the 1 hour time frame to go short.

1HR Time Frame

With a bearish cypher pattern just completed, I will reenter the market with a new short position at 1.53503. With this trade, I will set my stop loss at 1.53903 and my take profit will be near the support level at 1.52603.

1HR Time Frame

With this trade I can take all my losses to break even. I just wish that the market will not spike up and just go down immediately or else I will soon be down to -120 pips!

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD Short

Entry: 1.53503

SL: 1.53903

TP: 1.52603

GBPUSD Short Oct 30, 2015

Daily Time Frame

Look at that daily trend line made in GBPUSD. It was a very powerful resistance on the daily time frame that there were so many wicks hitting it from the past few days but none of them were able to close above. It made the price action move lower again and could it possibly go even further to hit the support line around 1.5115.

1HR Time Frame

Looking at a lower time frame, we can see that the pair is doing a staircase of possible resistances from the lower high price action. And with this situation, I believe that it could go back down and continue its downward trend.

1HR Time Frame

With the top down analysis on GBPUSD, I will short the market at 1.53118 hoping it to go lower again. I set my stop loss at 1.53512 and take profit to 1.52312 having a 1:2 risk to reward ratio. This is a 40 pip stop loss and a 80 pip profit target. 

This trade setup is for short term time frame. If you can have a bigger risk than me, you can put your stop loss above the trend line and have your profit target just above the support level indicated earlier on the Daily Time Frame.

I am currently -40 pips. Hopefully this trade will be more fortunate than the previous one.

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD Sell

Entry: 1.53118

SL: 1.53512

TP: 1.52312

Analysis Oct 29, 2015

4HR Time Frame

The FOMC Statement yesterday made the markets move drastically and hitting my stop loss immediately from entry. Currently with my first recorded trade, I am immediately down 40 pips with the NZDUSD sell yesterday.

I will be ignoring any incoming news events and will focus mainly on price action in deciding the trades setups that I will be making just to be clear on my analysis.

4HR Time Frame

I am still looking forward for this pair to go higher but the long term trend to the downside would be totally against my favor if I will take on another trade long. In any case, there is still a valid bullish gartley pattern that just completed and you can still hop in if you are a pattern trader. Just wait for it to go down a little lower to the buy zone for better entry.

Daily Time Frame.

As for me, I am looking for a break and close below the support around 0.662 to go with the long term down trend. If the price will still continue to go up, I will be looking for a short trade on the 50% retracement in the highlighted zone on the image above where the price will also test the long term trend line. This will be a very powerful area of resistance to break. Thus making it a very good selling area.

Good luck in trading guys!

NZDUSD Long Oct 28, 2015

Daily Time Frame

NZDUSD is on a heavy long term downtrend but recently broken above July 10, 2015 highs. I believe that the pair is still going up around 0.697 area shown in the image above as it is the 50% retracement of the April 29, 2015 highs and retest the long term trend line.

With the current consolidation, I am looking for long entry near the support hoping to get a good risk to reward but only for a short term trade as this is very bearish on the long term.

4HR Time Frame

Looking at the 4hr time frame, I was able to enter a long entry at 0.67207. Stop loss is at 0.66807 and the Take Profit level is only at the short term resistance at 0.68007. This will ensure a good risk to reward ratio which would be 1:2. I am risking 40 pips with a potential gain of 80 pips. This trade is perfect for the current price consolidation.

We will be eyeing on this pair as it hopefully approach the 50% retracement and look for a long term selling opportunity. As for now, this long entry will be good enough.

I will be updating all of my trades in here. Hopefully I will give a great analysis on every trade I make so that more people may understand technical analysis and hopefully profit personally along the way.

Good luck in trading guys! :)

NZDUSD Long Trade:

Entry: 0.67207

SL: 0.66807

TP: 0.68007