Trading Stats Nov 1, 2015

With my very first week of trading over, I will now post my statistics so that you guys may see the struggles I encounter each week in trading the currency markets. For this week, I have made a total of three trades NZDUSD Long here, and two GBPUSD Short made here and here.

All three trades lost with no luck at all. It is kinda embarrassing to post failing statistics but I believe no trader became successful without failing in the early stages. I just hope I can give you better results in the near future. This is my first time to give a statistic so it might not be as comprehensive as you might expect but I will add more stats along the way.

Trading Guidelines:

1. Have at least 1:2 risk to reward ratio

2. Have a risk of up to 30-40 pips only

3. Look for support/resistance and trend line in the Higher Time frame

4. Look for reasons for entering in the lower time frame

5. Look for possible advanced patterns in the lower time frame. (Review Experience)

Statistics:

• Pip Profit: -120 pips
• Successful trades: 0/3
• Chance of winning trade: 0%
• Ave gain in win: N/A
• Ave loss in fail: 40 pips

Weekend Review Oct 31, 2015

This is my first weekend review and I already have a very ugly start. I believe that I have done a decent analysis from the three trades made this week but all of them hit their stop loss. I am down 120 pips so far. We will see every trade I made the past week and look at how we can improve for future trading decisions later on.

We will look at my very first trade NZDUSD analyzed here.

I decided on my daily time frame analysis that there is still a possibility that the pair can still continue to go higher and reach the 50% retracement and retest the long term trend line. I am still looking at this pair on where it is heading. With the current price action of the pair, my analysis is still a valid possibility.

NZDUSD 4HR Time Frame

My regret was that I didn't see earlier that there was a valid gartley pattern completing a little bit lower where my stop loss was located. Adding more insult to injury, I saw the pattern and I could have still hopped in to the gartley pattern but I decided not to enter the market because the bearish trend might continue.

I was still even able to recommend the gartley pattern on my analysis after the first trade here. Congratulations on those who took the advanced pattern trade!

We will now look at my second trade analyzed here.

Again from my top down analysis, I believe that my trade analysis was still good enough to have confidence in entering the trade. But as you know, the trade hit it's stop loss as well. Similar to the NZDUSD trade, I failed to see in advance a possible completion of a bearish cypher pattern on where my stop loss was placed in which I could have had a better entry than this one.

But unlike the NZDUSD trade where I did not took the advanced cypher pattern because I thought that the long term trade was continuing, I took the cypher pattern in this situation here.

GBPUSD 1HR Time Frame

I took the cypher pattern believing that with my daily time frame analysis, I am still in a valid position to short the market. But if you have been in the market for quite some time, you know that your analysis is never perfect because you can never predict what the market will actually do.

GBPUSD Daily Time Frame

With the Daily candle close yesterday, my original daily time frame analysis for this currency pair is now invalidated in which I took two trades. Trend lines will be broken eventually and in this situation, it took two losses with me.

With the trading week over, I hope you guys were a lot more fortunate than me. The market is never forgiving so make sure your trades is safe with a stop loss all the time. I will be making a separate post where I will update my stats as a trader and list my learning experiences to remind myself all the time and hopefully I will become much better along the way.

Experienced gained this week:
Look for an advanced pattern in the lower time frame before entering a trade. It can give you a lot better entry than support and resistance trade setup in the lower time frame. It will also remove the possibility of doing two trades in the same area so that you will not lose twice if your analysis is wrong.

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD(2) Short Oct 30, 2015

Oh my God! Second straight trade failed! I am now down to -80 pips! My short term trades are really no good at all! But I still believe that my GBPUSD top down analysis is correct. For now, I still have a very good entry in the 1 hour time frame to go short.

1HR Time Frame

With a bearish cypher pattern just completed, I will reenter the market with a new short position at 1.53503. With this trade, I will set my stop loss at 1.53903 and my take profit will be near the support level at 1.52603.

1HR Time Frame

With this trade I can take all my losses to break even. I just wish that the market will not spike up and just go down immediately or else I will soon be down to -120 pips!

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD Short

Entry: 1.53503

SL: 1.53903

TP: 1.52603

GBPUSD Short Oct 30, 2015

Daily Time Frame

Look at that daily trend line made in GBPUSD. It was a very powerful resistance on the daily time frame that there were so many wicks hitting it from the past few days but none of them were able to close above. It made the price action move lower again and could it possibly go even further to hit the support line around 1.5115.

1HR Time Frame

Looking at a lower time frame, we can see that the pair is doing a staircase of possible resistances from the lower high price action. And with this situation, I believe that it could go back down and continue its downward trend.

1HR Time Frame

With the top down analysis on GBPUSD, I will short the market at 1.53118 hoping it to go lower again. I set my stop loss at 1.53512 and take profit to 1.52312 having a 1:2 risk to reward ratio. This is a 40 pip stop loss and a 80 pip profit target. 

This trade setup is for short term time frame. If you can have a bigger risk than me, you can put your stop loss above the trend line and have your profit target just above the support level indicated earlier on the Daily Time Frame.

I am currently -40 pips. Hopefully this trade will be more fortunate than the previous one.

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD Sell

Entry: 1.53118

SL: 1.53512

TP: 1.52312

Analysis Oct 29, 2015

4HR Time Frame

The FOMC Statement yesterday made the markets move drastically and hitting my stop loss immediately from entry. Currently with my first recorded trade, I am immediately down 40 pips with the NZDUSD sell yesterday.

I will be ignoring any incoming news events and will focus mainly on price action in deciding the trades setups that I will be making just to be clear on my analysis.

4HR Time Frame

I am still looking forward for this pair to go higher but the long term trend to the downside would be totally against my favor if I will take on another trade long. In any case, there is still a valid bullish gartley pattern that just completed and you can still hop in if you are a pattern trader. Just wait for it to go down a little lower to the buy zone for better entry.

Daily Time Frame.

As for me, I am looking for a break and close below the support around 0.662 to go with the long term down trend. If the price will still continue to go up, I will be looking for a short trade on the 50% retracement in the highlighted zone on the image above where the price will also test the long term trend line. This will be a very powerful area of resistance to break. Thus making it a very good selling area.

Good luck in trading guys!

NZDUSD Long Oct 28, 2015

Daily Time Frame

NZDUSD is on a heavy long term downtrend but recently broken above July 10, 2015 highs. I believe that the pair is still going up around 0.697 area shown in the image above as it is the 50% retracement of the April 29, 2015 highs and retest the long term trend line.

With the current consolidation, I am looking for long entry near the support hoping to get a good risk to reward but only for a short term trade as this is very bearish on the long term.

4HR Time Frame

Looking at the 4hr time frame, I was able to enter a long entry at 0.67207. Stop loss is at 0.66807 and the Take Profit level is only at the short term resistance at 0.68007. This will ensure a good risk to reward ratio which would be 1:2. I am risking 40 pips with a potential gain of 80 pips. This trade is perfect for the current price consolidation.

We will be eyeing on this pair as it hopefully approach the 50% retracement and look for a long term selling opportunity. As for now, this long entry will be good enough.

I will be updating all of my trades in here. Hopefully I will give a great analysis on every trade I make so that more people may understand technical analysis and hopefully profit personally along the way.

Good luck in trading guys! :)

NZDUSD Long Trade:

Entry: 0.67207

SL: 0.66807

TP: 0.68007