Weekend Review Nov 7, 2015

This has been a great week for me since I was able to break my four trade losing streak and I was able to significantly decrease my overall losses from -150 pips to -50 pips with only one win trade! I was only able to trade on one currency pair for this week since almost all the major currency pairs are already being dragged by the dollar strength and this pair was the only one doing a significant retracement in the daily time frame before continuing it's trend.

We will first look at my first trade setup of AUDUSD here.

Looking at the daily chart of AUDUSD back in Nov 2, 2015 we can see that the price is retracing upward to the the bearish trend line. I know that there was still a possibility that the pair would still continue its retracement a little bit more and could possibly retest the trend line first before going down but when I checked at the lower time frame, there was already a bearish gartley pattern that completed. The completion of the pattern is also located at an area where there is a short term resistance. This gave an additional reason to enter the market as a trend continuation trade. But with every possible reason I made, the market was still able to break my analysis and hit my stop loss making this the fourth trade losing streak. I will choose to enter this trade setup anytime though. This time the market just won.

We will now check my second trade on AUDUSD on the next day here.

With the market continuing to retrace upward and retest the trend line, it was able to create a new top in the lower time frame very near the daily trend line. I now have three reasons where I think the best place to enter the trade. First reason was that the pair made a new top and that would mean creating a new resistance area in the lower time frame. Second, there was 0.72 major psychological number that could serve as another resistance. I admit that this reason does not give me a lot of confidence but based on many sources, psychological numbers are a valid support and resistance levels. Lastly, the daily bearish trend line was there to hold the price. And all these reasons can all be covered within a 40 pips stop loss placement and so I placed a pending order at 0.71950 to ensure a trade will be triggered even if I was not there. And as I already mentioned, this was the trade that broke my losing streak!

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

But this trade did not close immediately after it was triggered. It was even open during the release of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) Report. I was even able to change the limits of this trade to favor my situation. Just before the NFP report came out, I changed the stop loss level to 0.7180. This would ensure that I will have a profit even if the price would go up. I also increased my profit target to leverage on the news report if the price would go down.

I'm not sure what more things I could do to improve my trading with these two previous trades. I am willing to trade those two setup again if I can have the chance. My only regret on this week I think is the take profit level I chose before the NFP report was out. I think I could have had more profit to take but I am not sure on what price to target. I will be studying this kind of situation next time to ensure a better return.

With only two trades made this week, I think I need to adjust my trading entry strategy as well. I am always looking first at the long term time frame hoping to see any decent retracement so that I can enter on a big swing trade. Maybe next week I will also be looking a lot more in the lower time frame to have more chance in entering the market. But I will still need to take into consideration of my trading strategy especially my 1:2 risk to reward ratio. Anyway this has been a good week. Maybe if I will encounter another bad week then maybe I can see a lot of my flaws then I could be guided on what more I could improve.

I am now only down by 50 pips guys! With the losing streak over, I am hoping to have my winning streak soon!

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Update Nov 6, 2015

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

I think I need to post this update since this is actually my first win! My 4 trade losing streak has finally been broken! I wish that I will never experience that feeling again! And this happened because of a Non Farm Payroll news report! The thrill was very satisfying especially when waiting for the release of the report. The nervousness that the report might go against my trade was nerve wracking! I won 100 pips on this trade unfortunately I wasn't able to post my change in trade setup. What I was only able to say was that I was going to change my stop loss and take profit level yesterday here.

Yesterday I said that when this trade was still open when the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) comes out, I would change my stop loss and take profit target to secure my profit. As you can see in the chart above I labeled there my new stop and target. I ensured that this trade will have even just a little profit and break my losing streak! I lowered my stop loss just above the two tops created by the market when this trade was still active and also lowered the take profit level to have 100 pips from 80 pips in the original setup. I think I could still have lowered that take profit level. But I don't care! A win is a win!

I am now only down 50 pips. With my 100 pip win trade I was able to cut my 150 pip loss from my four trade losing streak! With this kind of win gives so much morale back to you as a trader. I just hope I can have a four trade winning streak to make a great come back!

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPUSD Analysis Nov 5 2015

The GBPUSD pair has just been in a range motion recently. We previewed this pair earlier this week here. And if you were someone who shorted this pair on the resistance zone, congratulations!

GBPUSD Daily Time Frame

Based on our previous analysis, we were right that the market will be able to bounce back down when hit the resistance. Unfortunately it was a very brief moment in that resistance area. I was not able to see a good shorting opportunity in the lower time frame. But if you were the aggressive trader and entered this trade based on the long term analysis, your risk paid off. For now, the pair is near the support zone. I am now looking for this pair to go long. The only concern I have now is the NFP report tomorrow which could possibly destroy our analysis.

GBPUSD 1HR Time Frame

But if you look at our lower time frame, there is already a good reason for entry since a bat pattern has already been completed. If you are an aggressive trader, you can actually pounce on this trade setup and long the market. You can have a stop loss below the the support area highlighted in the daily time frame and set your take profit near the resistance area. For me, I will stay on the sidelines a little bit longer and wait for the market to calm down. It just made a landslide bearish candle on the downside and with that momentum, it can destroy the support area easily. I will wait for the market to calm down and hint a possible upward move then I can enter. Make sure to check your rules in entering this trade guys!

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

Quick update on my active trade in AUDUSD trade setup done here. The pair is currently in consolidation and can possible retrace a little bit more to the upside before going down to my take profit. I'm afraid that this trade might still be open until tomorrow when the NFP report comes out. That will be a big problem if the dollar report will be bearish. There will be a lot of support and resistances broken for sure. If the dollar will be bullish, we can see a huge move on our side. If this trade is still active near the release of the report, I will adjust my SL and TP prices. I will decide the setup tomorrow.

Good luck in trading guys!

GBPJPY Analysis Nov 4,2015

It very hard to find some major currency pair that has a good trading opportunity since most USD pairs are being bullied by the dollar. They are mostly on the move already due to the dollar strength. If we want to enter the market in a good position, the currency needs to retrace a little bit first. So I was checking out GBPJPY this time.

GBPJPY Daily Time Frame

Looking at the daily time frame, we can see that the pair is going up recently and is approaching a resistance zone. Looking also at the size of the daily bullish candle sticks, they are really not that powerful of an upward move. It is just moving upward tiny steps at a time. But if you check the bearish Oct 27, 2015 candle, the currency can drop significantly anytime. I believe that the pair is going to retrace back to the bullish trend line first and then bounce up to continue its upward move some time soon.

GBPJPY 4HR Time Frame

If you look at the 4hr time frame, we can see that there is a bearish bat pattern forming and could possibly back up my analysis in the daily time frame. Unfortunately GBP currency pairs tend to have a huge pip movement and that X leg of the bat pattern is still around 800 pips away. That is more than my risk capabilities. I will be checking the lower time frame on this pair to see if I can find a bearish entry and have lower risk than this setup.

 

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

Just a quick update on my AUDUSD pending order done here. The order was triggered and with the three possible resistances I mentioned when pending on this trade, the daily bearish trend line was the one who was able to stop the price from going up! I just hope this trade will break my four trade losing streak! Currently I am up around 40 pips on this trade. I am half way there on my take profit! Hopefully soon, this trade will close on a profit!

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Pending Short Nov 3, 2015

Have you ever felt you wanna cry in trading cause you always lose your trades and never know what else to do to improve it? I have felt that many times and again now with my fourth consecutive trade on the losing side! How do you even try to move on while you always encounter failure on every move you take? Do you wanna quit on trading? Do you want to find another thing more productive to do? I have thought about it so many times now. Just to let you guys know, I am entering the market with my actual account in every trade I post here so that all the feelings I may express is legit. If you are still struggling or if you are actually trying to start trading, you might reach a time where you are so lost, you are so sad or maybe so depressed and angry. Don't worry guys. You are not alone. If you are one of those lucky few that escaped this level of failure in trading, can you give an advice?

AUDUSD Daily Time Frame

Anyway, even though our advanced pattern short entry failed here, the market is still respecting the downward trend line in the longer time frame. I am still looking for another shorting opportunity here but as I explained earlier, I really don't know what else to do to make things right. I may have some decent reason behind my trade but the outcome are no good at all.

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

Looking at the lower time frame, I set a pending sell order at 0.71950 hoping the market will try to make a double top or retrace a little before continuing going south based on the higher time frame. You can see the bearish trend line drawn from the daily time frame above. I chose 0.7195 as the entry price because just above it will be a psychological resistance number 0.7200. Also with the new top created by the market, I hope that it will serve as another resistance as well. Lastly the falling trend line would hopefully hold the price below it. This is also good in my stop placement since I will be risking 40 pips on this trade, the stop loss will be located at 0.7235 decently above all resistance mentioned as you can see in the chart. And I will set my take profit level at 0.7115 with 80 pips away to have a minimum 1:2 risk to reward ratio.

For the record, I am now down 150 pips and in my fourth losing streak. I hope this trade will be triggered and will break my bad luck. I hope you guys are having a lot more better performance than I do.

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Pending Short
Entry: 0.71950
SL: 0.7235
TP: 0.7115

AUDUSD Short Nov 2, 2015

AUDUSD Daily Time Frame

Looking at the Daily Time Frame and even the weekly time frame, you can see that the pair has been in a very huge down trend. With that bias I am only looking for a possible short entry with the major trend. Last Friday, the pair was able to rally significantly and engulf the bearish candle from Oct 29, 2015. Today there was still a continuation of the up move but looking at the lower time frame...

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

I was able to find a bearish gartley patter in the 1hr time frame. I was a little bit hesitant about this trade as the market is a little bit retracing and is currently going back close to the trend line. But this is an opportunity to short the market with minimal risk than usual.

I entered the trade at 0.71409 looking only to gain at least 60 pips at 0.70809. I will be only risking 30 pips on this trade at 0.71709. I know that I am not following the advanced pattern take profit but I am trading this for the bearish major trend. Also, I don't want to break my rule on at least having 1:2 risk to reward ratio. I only chose to enter this way to have a better position backed with a good entry.

I hope that this trade will be my first win so that I wont have 4 consecutive losing trades from the start. If you think you can improve my setup or if you can suggest a better trading rule, write at the comments below!

Good luck in trading guys!

AUDUSD Short
Entry: 0.71409
TP: 0.70809
SL: 0.71709

Market Preview Nov 1, 2015

GBPUSD Daily Time Frame

We will first discuss the GBPUSD break of trend line in the daily time frame. Initially I took two short trades last week here and here hoping for the pair to go lower before the close of the daily candle. Unfortunately, the market would later on continue higher and hit both stop loss. 

With the break of the trend line, we can now wait for the market to reach the resistance level and look for a possible sell entry on the lower time frame. On the other side, we might see the market retrace back a little bit lower and make the broken trend line its support and then go higher. In case the market will reach the support area, I will be looking for a buy entry in the lower time frame. 

With the trend line no longer valid, I will now treat this pair as in consolidation between the highlighted support and resistance areas.

USDCHF Daily Time Frame

For the USDCHF pair, it has already broken the bearish trend line and also closed above the August 11 highs. It is currently retracing from 6 days of straight bullish candles. I am looking at this pair to go higher but will be continuously waiting until the retracement stops. I will be checking for the lower time frame for best possible entry when the upswing starts.

There are many possible places were it may start its upward move but there are only two places where I will want to enter the market. The first area where I will look to enter the market will be the previously broken trend line. There are multiple times when the market makes these broken trend lines as support. The second place place where I would want to enter the market is the bullish trend line. I know that it is still so far away but that is the safest place to buy the market. Hopefully I can find myself a good entry in these areas but we can never know what the market will do. It can even continue its upward move tomorrow for all we know.

USDCAD Daily Time Frame

In USDCAD, the pair is currently heading back to the support area. But before hitting that area, it will first reach the bullish trend line. I believe that this trend line will hold and I will be looking for a buying opportunity in the lower time frame when the price will be close enough to trend line. This is by far the most clean setup I have. Hopefully I can find a decent entry so that I won't waste this opportunity.

I will still be analyzing more currency pairs later on this week. Do you have any pair that you want me to analyze so that we can compare our analysis? Just ask in the comments!

Good luck in trading guys!