Weekend Review Nov 7, 2015

This has been a great week for me since I was able to break my four trade losing streak and I was able to significantly decrease my overall losses from -150 pips to -50 pips with only one win trade! I was only able to trade on one currency pair for this week since almost all the major currency pairs are already being dragged by the dollar strength and this pair was the only one doing a significant retracement in the daily time frame before continuing it's trend.

We will first look at my first trade setup of AUDUSD here.

Looking at the daily chart of AUDUSD back in Nov 2, 2015 we can see that the price is retracing upward to the the bearish trend line. I know that there was still a possibility that the pair would still continue its retracement a little bit more and could possibly retest the trend line first before going down but when I checked at the lower time frame, there was already a bearish gartley pattern that completed. The completion of the pattern is also located at an area where there is a short term resistance. This gave an additional reason to enter the market as a trend continuation trade. But with every possible reason I made, the market was still able to break my analysis and hit my stop loss making this the fourth trade losing streak. I will choose to enter this trade setup anytime though. This time the market just won.

We will now check my second trade on AUDUSD on the next day here.

With the market continuing to retrace upward and retest the trend line, it was able to create a new top in the lower time frame very near the daily trend line. I now have three reasons where I think the best place to enter the trade. First reason was that the pair made a new top and that would mean creating a new resistance area in the lower time frame. Second, there was 0.72 major psychological number that could serve as another resistance. I admit that this reason does not give me a lot of confidence but based on many sources, psychological numbers are a valid support and resistance levels. Lastly, the daily bearish trend line was there to hold the price. And all these reasons can all be covered within a 40 pips stop loss placement and so I placed a pending order at 0.71950 to ensure a trade will be triggered even if I was not there. And as I already mentioned, this was the trade that broke my losing streak!

AUDUSD 1HR Time Frame

But this trade did not close immediately after it was triggered. It was even open during the release of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) Report. I was even able to change the limits of this trade to favor my situation. Just before the NFP report came out, I changed the stop loss level to 0.7180. This would ensure that I will have a profit even if the price would go up. I also increased my profit target to leverage on the news report if the price would go down.

I'm not sure what more things I could do to improve my trading with these two previous trades. I am willing to trade those two setup again if I can have the chance. My only regret on this week I think is the take profit level I chose before the NFP report was out. I think I could have had more profit to take but I am not sure on what price to target. I will be studying this kind of situation next time to ensure a better return.

With only two trades made this week, I think I need to adjust my trading entry strategy as well. I am always looking first at the long term time frame hoping to see any decent retracement so that I can enter on a big swing trade. Maybe next week I will also be looking a lot more in the lower time frame to have more chance in entering the market. But I will still need to take into consideration of my trading strategy especially my 1:2 risk to reward ratio. Anyway this has been a good week. Maybe if I will encounter another bad week then maybe I can see a lot of my flaws then I could be guided on what more I could improve.

I am now only down by 50 pips guys! With the losing streak over, I am hoping to have my winning streak soon!

Good luck in trading guys!